Enterprise CRM JUL 02, 2026

Guggenheim triple-upgrades CRM, NOW, CHKP to Buy, calls SaaS 'Armageddon' overdone

John DiFucci's July 1 note argues AI-driven software fears are 'misaligned with reality,' setting Salesforce PT at $228, ServiceNow at $125, and Check Point at $188.

BY GRETA REINHART · ENTERPRISE SAAS

Guggenheim Securities triple-upgraded Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Check Point Software to Buy from Neutral on July 1, 2026, with analyst John DiFucci arguing that the AI “SaaSpocalypse” bear case has pushed enterprise-software multiples to levels that price in perpetual decline. The note set price targets of $228 on CRM, $125 on NOW, and $188 on CHKP.

Salesforce closed up 4.2%, the Dow’s standout on a day when the index itself finished down 0.03% at 52,305, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,483, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% to 26,040 as investors rotated out of memory names. Even after the pop, CRM remains down more than 38% year to date, the worst Dow performer of 2026.

DiFucci was careful about what the call isn’t. Guggenheim explicitly framed the Salesforce upgrade as “not a call that Salesforce will be a beneficiary of AI,” only that the stock won’t decline as sharply as the current multiple implies. The $228 target works out to 5.0x EV/NTM recurring revenue and roughly 46% upside from current levels. It also lands after Salesforce’s roughly $3.6 billion acquisition of Fin, the AI-driven customer support product rebranded from Intercom.

The ServiceNow defense is the most granular. NOW has fallen 35% since Guggenheim moved it from Sell to Neutral in December 2025, against a 16% drop in the IGV software index and a 10% gain in the S&P 500 over the same window. DiFucci flagged improvement in the U.S. Federal Government segment while conceding that AI monetization remains distant and that talent risk from AI-native startups is real. The $125 target values NOW at 7.5x EV/NTM recurring revenue.

“We believe current levels present an attractive opportunity for investors to purchase a comfortably profitable stock likely to continue to grow at double digits,” DiFucci wrote.

Check Point earns its upgrade on a plainer argument: discount-to-peers, recurring revenue mix, cash-flow profile. Guggenheim expects subscription growth across the group to stabilize in 2026 and reaccelerate into 2027.

The structural read is that a sell-side desk is now willing to underwrite SaaS names not because AI helps them, but because the market has priced in a scenario where AI ends them. That’s a distinction DiFucci is asking clients to sit with.

Sources

About the author

Greta Reinhart

ENTERPRISE SAAS

Greta Reinhart tracks the enterprise software stack from San Francisco — data platforms, AI bundling, seat pricing, and channel checks across the largest SaaS vendors. She files on go-to-market shifts, packaging changes, and quarterly enterprise reads.